I personally don't think the prices for games will drop at all. Remember when game companies justified the cost of $60 games over $50 ones back when the 360 and PS3 were new, by saying how much longer the development cycles were, and how much more they had to put out to make them? Now, part of that $60 cost is blamed on making up lost money from the used game market, part of it on piracy, and so forth. Digital distribution was pimped by them as being so much faster and cheaper, but the digital games still cost the same as the retail ones, don't they? And once again, it's to make up lost revenue from the used games/piracy/whatever. It's all about scapegoats, and not stating the real reason; that they want to charge that much, and people keep willingly forking out the cash for those big (supposedly) AAA titles at launch. Until that changes, and people say "fuck this" and stop buying games at those $60+ launch prices, the costs for the players won't go down at all.
Of course, knowing the bigger game companies today, they'd just blame those low sales figures on piracy and used games, and then jack the price up another $10. And frankly, if the perfect DRM was invented that stopped piracy, and the used game market vanished, the game makers would come up with another reason to explain their $60 games.[/cynical]