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Garrett Williamson
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Oh you silly people

"We believe over the next five years we can break a 100 million unit installed base," said Mehdi.

Read the article :/

Considering 360 sold 77.31 million units and original Xbox sold 24.65 million but most of which are probably not hooked up anymore... I'm sure there's some that are. *shrug*

100 million is not a lofty goal, it's actually below what I'd say they should be expecting.

The 1 billion thing is theoretical, though I think it'd be more likely if Xbox came built-in to TVs. You're not gonna push that many units on your own.

Edited by Brandon Strader
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The article said they were looking at this generation of consoles breaching the 30% increase level that most other generations have achieved, and specifically due to the fact that the XBox One is going to be a multimedia device like none other, they see the possibility of breaching about a billion units sold by all of the consoles combined... which is still quite a lofty number, even with those considerations.

The funny part of the article is that the representative brought that number up specifically because it's going to be an all-in-one box - the thinking is that a multimedia device will bring in consumers that are not gamers. Perhaps it will, but at the same time it looks as if they're also dropping nearly their entire player base, too, as things stand, so those numbers just aren't lining up, yet.

Again, though, if they build units in anticipation of all these sales, then I hope they have a nice plot of land in New Mexico ready to accept all those units. They probably won't, but with the string of mistakes they're making right now it wouldn't surprise me...

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or everyone will by a smart TV and have absolutely zero use for an xbox one *except as a games machine* and there will be a lot of useless doilies that drive up the price of the system

Yeah, that'll probably be the case - the fact that they're hinging their sales on that fact is a little silly. That's where they're getting their numbers, though, and in theory it could work. So far people seem to be seeing it for what it is - bloatware - so... yeah, not a good strategy on their part.

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The US population is around 316 million.... Europe is around 738 million according to wikipedia, Canada 34 mil, Mexico 112, Japan 128 million roughly, around 1.3 billion total.... O.o (any other populations that should be included in this number?)

How many of those people want a several hundred dollar set top box? (I don't even want to call it a game console :neutral:)

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The US population is around 316 million.... Europe is around 738 million according to wikipedia, Canada 34 mil, Mexico 112, Japan 128 million roughly, around 1.3 billion total.... O.o (any other populations that should be included in this number?)

How many of those people want a several hundred dollar set top box? (I don't even want to call it a game console :neutral:)

I thought world population was closer to 6 or 7 billion.

US population was like 316 way back in the 2000s, before the illegal immigrant boom.

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Nobody is reading the article correctly (or at all, and making assumptions from the headline: ) Microsoft is not expecting the Xbox One BY ITSELF to ship a billion units, but the combined sales of the Xbox One and PS4 to ship a billion units. A lofty and unlikely projection to be sure (though it may be slightly less unlikely if they would acknowledge Nintendo in those numbers as well,) but not quite as ludicrous if a lot of households own both. Granted, it was similar thinking from Atari that crashed the home console market back in '83, and it doesn't leave me with a good feeling that we aren't going to see yet another crash with this generation...

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If Wii U continues to sit at 3 million units sold it may already be crashing... I know from opinions here that people aren't too fond of the Xbone and PS4. I could see Xbone moving maybe 5 million units in the amount of time Wii U moved 3, and I'd say PS4 might move around 7 to 10 million.. that's just a prediction. But the gist of what I'm saying is I expect it to be farther away from 1 billion than the last generation was... That's just an opinion.

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That's 387.5 million for South America(blame Google/wikipedia if all my numbers are wrong), around 1.7 billion total. I was trying to include fairly relevant country areas as far technology/internet goes. Countries like Guatemala obviously wouldn't have that large of a gamer base anyways. China, I'm not so sure about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_launch#China

Quoting Wikipedia for lack of initiative to find factual links. Plus, there's a key phrase that limits the system as far as the region is concerned: internet censorship.

This was just my way of putting out why they might be overestimating a little. This isn't even putting internet connectivity, income and the percentage of people who'd want these over other stuff into consideration.

I think a real problem will be the price. There's just no getting around that. EDIT:...Unless, of course, they decide to sell at a loss; unless they already are.

Edited by GravitySuitCollector
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If Wii U continues to sit at 3 million units sold it may already be crashing... I know from opinions here that people aren't too fond of the Xbone and PS4. I could see Xbone moving maybe 5 million units in the amount of time Wii U moved 3, and I'd say PS4 might move around 7 to 10 million.. that's just a prediction. But the gist of what I'm saying is I expect it to be farther away from 1 billion than the last generation was... That's just an opinion.

Since you insist on bringing up Wii U and how it's 'failing', let's take a look at global Wii U sales compared to PS3 sales in their first 5 months:

Month 1 (November): PS3 (~400K), Wii U (~500K)

Month 2 (December): PS3 (~850K; ~1.25M total), Wii U (~2M; Est. total to this point: ~2.5M)

Month 3 (January): PS3 (~380K; ~1.6M), Wii U (~250K; ~2.7M)

Month 4 (February): PS3's worst ever month (~240K; ~1.8M), Wii U (~150K; Est. total to this point: ~2.9M)

Month 5 (March): PS3 (~985K; ~2.65M), Wii U (~146K; ~3M)

Also:

During the same period in their first 6 months, the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 both sold under 3 million units. This doesn’t change the fact that Wii U sales are still below what Nintendo estimated (they wanted 5.5 million units in the first 6 months).

Yeah, good luck with your prediction numbers, Brandon.

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The difference between the WiiU and PS3 launch is that the PS3 launched at, what, a 50% higher price? So you would expect the WiiU to sell comparably more all other things being equal. The same kinda thing will have to be considered for Xbox One sales. If it debuts at $500, then ALL other things being equal, it will not sell as well as a $400 console, or a $300, etc. Some people simply don't have $500, no matter how much they want the thing.

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yeah trying to crush the used games market is kind of a shitty thing to do in a recession

but the money microsoft is losing! surely they need to crush some market like that! surely they need the money from all the games and Xbox Ones that they'll sell! i mean, it's not like they're doing very well financially or anything!

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Microsoft is, in fact, not doing as well as it should be. Global adoption of Windows 8 with its tepid reviews has caused enterprise adaptation of Windows 8 for businesses to be beyond glacial in speed. Microsoft makes the most amount of money right now with its corporate side, and if the latest iteration of Windows isn't doing hot, you can bet that Microsoft isn't having the easiest of times. It's not doing terribly, but I digress.

Most people would agree that, in a perfect world, the used game market wouldn't exist as it currently does. How it is now, and how it would be under Microsoft's Xbox One (from all the information we currently know) doesn't deal with the fundamental problem that used games introduces: a lack of secondary revenue for the developer/publisher.

Gamestop and Best Buy all make bank off of trades because whatever they sell a used game for, minus the cost they paid for the game from the customer and any kind of repair costs, is all net gain. Trading in a used game where the trader gets $10 in store credit, and $2 goes to resurfacing the disc, that same used game can be resold for $30-40 with 50-75% going right into the company's pocket. Some games currently fight this with an abundance of DLC, online passes, etc. It still doesn't make up for the loss of money the developer and publisher are deprived of.

From the current known facets of the XBO, the two most critical are the fact that there's a fee to pay to borrow or use a used game, and that indie developers are currently slated to be shafted without a publisher. Unless Microsoft announces that the money being charged for that reactivation fee at least in part goes to the developer and/or publisher, then they're doing nothing to fight the problem at its core.

To quote one of Microsoft's own sage wisdoms:

DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS!

The comments about the one billion consoles sold thing is at best optimistic if consoles are, from this generation onwards, considered an essential component of any media system, meaning it replaces cable boxes, DVRs, and DVD/Blu-ray players. Otherwise its just a stupid number.

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